More ($): The fine line of Purdue's season

Thursday night, Purdue's 2018 season opens with what could be a pivotal matchup with Northwestern in Ross-Ade Stadium, as the Boilermakers begin their efforts to live up to a new standard put in place by last season's surprising — and memorable — success.

To preview the upcoming the season, here is a look around.

Purdue has two proven quarterbacks, two high-quality tight ends (and perhaps three) and a stable of running backs that represents a significant luxury when that stable is actually healthy, which has pretty much never been the case in the past year.

The preseason offensive line outlook is as positive as it's been in years, because Purdue is experienced not only with its projected starters, but also its backups, fortified by the addition of guard Dennis Edwards, the return from injury of tackle (and potential standout) Grant Hermanns in conjunction with the experience gained last season by players like Eric Swingler and Shane Evans.

The wide receiver position has some things to prove across the board, but around the rest of the offense, Purdue's as proven — and seemingly deep — as it's been in some time.

On the other side of that coin, Purdue didn't get wiped out by graduation on defense, but it has significant assets to replace.

The Boilermaker coaching staff is comfortable with its secondary, led by returning starters Navon Mosley and Jacob Thieneman at safety, but linebacker and defensive tackle are under the microscope.

Purdue has a stud at linebacker in Markus Bailey, but he's the only upperclassman returning — not starter, upperclassman — at his position and while Purdue likes its sophomores there, they're only modestly experienced and there aren't so many of them that the Boilermakers can absorb attrition in the form of injury and not feel it.

At defensive tackle, Purdue had the luxury to make Lorenzo Neal better by keeping his snap count down. Eddy Wilson and Gelen Robinson made that possible. They're gone. Now, Anthony Watts will be counted on at the other DT spot and someone — anyone — will be asked to be reliable in reserve so Purdue can rotate as it would like at the position without deal-breaking drop-off.

Oh, and the defensive ends and hybrids — Kai Higgins, Giovanni Reviere, et al — are physically gifted and promising, but unproven, and no one seems to know whether Purdue's edge-rushers can do just that at this point.

Pass rush stands as Purdue's biggest non-depth-related defensive question.

There's a bunch, obviously.

• Intangibles: The Week 1 opponent, Northwestern, is a reflection of what Purdue is working toward being — a consistent high-IQ, high-effort program. Purdue won last season as much, it seemed, because it wanted to than it was good enough to, if that makes sense, and that effort mustn't dull in the face of last season's success and all the headlines and attention that came with it.

• Chunk plays: Late in the season last year, Purdue didn't need tricks to make big plays. The vertical passing game clicked, and when Brohm talks of the importance of starting this season the way Purdue finished last, it feels like he's speaking to that element of the game.

The tricks are fun — and effective — too, but knockout punches are more effective against opponents softened up by body blows.

• Pass D: That was Purdue's soft underbelly last season, but it came with an asterisk. Purdue prioritized the run, and made opponents throw it, so that was in part a product of emphasis.

Purdue likes its secondary, but its organic pass rush — the ability to simply beat the offense to the quarterback without blitzing — is TBD. It's important.

Until it's proven one way or the other, expect Markus Bailey and the linebackers, Jacob Thieneman and the safeties and nickels to have to play a prominent role in that element.

• Injuries: So much went wrong last season when Purdue couldn't afford it to, yet some how, some way, the Boilermakers got through it, thanks largely to a heroic (if you're one to equate heroism with something as inconsequential as sports) effort from injured QB Elijah Sindelar and crucial hole-filling from backups such as Swingler at offensive tackle and Garrett Hudson at linebacker.

Purdue's margin for error isn't much different this season, especially on defense, and no one wants its luck to have to be pressed.

• Effort: There are no apparent red flags here but, again, success can be an intoxicant, and Purdue won last season for a reason and must win again this season for that same reason. Its effort a year ago made the whole something more than the sum of its parts.

• Imbalance: Early in camp, the urgency to bring the downfield passing game up to code was palpable.

Again, when Jeff Brohm says Purdue has to start this season the way it finished last, he's speaking in part to the vertical passing game. The Boilermakers, with two veteran quarterbacks, an experienced offensive line and more speed at wide receiver than they've had in years, should be able to do it.

If they can't, and Purdue becomes a run-and-screen offense that needs to hit trick plays to make big plays, then the offense will be limited, and if the offense is limited, there's no guarantee the defense will be there to bail it out, as it did at times last season.

He was undoubtedly set back some by an ankle injury during camp's home stretch, but prior, Jared Sparks looked like Purdue's best wide receiver and the safest bet to fill the impact quotient set by Anthony Mahoungou late last season.

Now fully immersed into wide receiver, the former quarterback has matured physically into a legitimate 210-plus-pounder, big enough to bring a physical element to a position in transition, but also still fast enough to make plays down the field, as he did often early in camp.

Sparks' emergence, along with the arrival of freshman Rondale Moore, the return of known commodity Jackson Anthrop and, ideally, the improvement of seniors Terry Wright and Isaac Zico, suggests that while Purdue may still have questions at wide receiver, it has good raw materials.

You're looking at two well above all others.

First is graduate transfer Dennis Edwards, the former Western Kentucky lineman who'll, ideally, lock down a guard position for the Boilermakers, much the way David Steinmetz did his tackle spot last season. Edwards should be considered a known already, because he's proven to this point he can play and his familiarity with Purdue's coaches from his WKU days certainly eased his transition.

Second, and of higher profile, is obviously freshman Rondale Moore, the blue-chip recruit who backed up his advance billing, it seemed, during camp. Expect him to be a featured player from Day 1 on offense and in the return game. Purdue's not had this dynamic an offensive weapon at receiver since Dorien Bryant, and Moore carries himself with a maturity that suggests he's not just talented enough to be an impact player right away, but ready to be.

Others: Freshman Jeff Marks and Jaylan Alexander will contribute on the defensive line and at linebacker, respectively, Amad Anderson could find a role in the wide receivers corps, and Elijah Ball may work his way into a role as a backup safety and nickel.

But Edwards and Moore are far and away the new players who won't just play, but will be depended on, and there is a difference.

Some sites have "fearless" predictions. Ours scare us death.

Regardless, here goes.

• Elijah Sindelar starts the season at quarterback. Again, the continuation of the end of last season's momentum has been a significant talking point for Purdue's head coach. It was Sindelar at the helm for those games, and it was him throwing deep to Mahoungou.

Nothing against David Blough. It just seems to add up. The reality is that Purdue can win with either and could need to.

• Rondale Moore nets 800 or more yards from scrimmage. If that number doesn't sound all that impressive, keep in mind, D.J. Knox led Purdue with 699 last season.

• But Rondale Moore will not be Purdue's best wide receiver. Nor will returning leading receiver Jackson Anthrop. Jared Sparks, assuming he's healthy, will be.

• The running back issue persists: Clearly, Purdue's going to have to manage its running backs corps closely. It did in camp and will continue on with the mind set that Markell Jones, D.J. Knox and Tario Fuller are day to day every day, not because they're fragile, but because the best predictor of the future is the past and for the past year-and-a-half, that position has been riddled with injury.

Alexander Horvath is going to play. And not just special teams or situational fullback.

• Markus Bailey leads Purdue in sacks and interceptions. He's done both separately. Now, he does both in the same year, which would be a first in program history. Defensively, he's everything for Purdue and the pass-rush questions mean he's going to hear his number called on blitzes as much as or more than last season.

• Six regular season wins. That feels about right, but won't be easy, given the stiffening of the schedule over last season. Purdue can make strides as a program this season and win fewer games than it did last season for that reason. Seven's a big number in that context.

But if the Boilermakers can get back to the postseason, its precious momentum will endure.

The Northwestern game is enormous.

• Purdue wins a rockfight against Northwestern Thursday night. It may not be pretty, but Purdue's home environment should be an advantage against a solid Wildcat team that will have to play through some rust on Clayton Thorson's part and doesn't have a great track record of starting seasons very well.

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