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Published Jan 10, 2019
GOLDANDBLACK.COM PREVIEW: Purdue at Wisconsin
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Brian Neubert  •  BoilerUpload
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More: Purdue 2018-19 roster | 2018-19 men's basketball schedule

More ($): Fearful Predictions — Purdue's 2018-19 season | Burning Questions

Friday, Jan. 11, 2019 • 9 p.m. ET | Kohl Center (Madison, Wis.) | TV: FS1 | Radio: Purdue Radio Network

In-game updates: Twitter.com — @GoldandBlackcom | @brianneubert

Our premium board game thread and pre-game thoughts can be found roughly an hour prior to tip-off

ABOUT THIS GAME

• Purdue's coming off a 77-59 loss at Michigan State in which it shot only 31 percent, dropping its road record this season to 0-4. Wisconsin's 3-1 in the Big Ten, but last time it played at the Kohl Center, it lost to Minnesota. Still, the Badgers are a very different team from last season, despite looking mostly the same.

• This is a meeting between two of the leading players in the Big Ten Player-of-the-Year race, preseason pick Carsen Edwards of Purdue and preseason runner-up Ethan Happ, though Edwards is coming off one of the most difficult games of his career last time out.

Cassius Winston of Michigan State may have jumped to the front of the line here, but it is early.

Purdue is expected to play without starting center Evan Boudreaux, who strained his adductor (thigh) at Michigan State and has been ruled out by Matt Painter.

That may mean freshman Trevion Williams gets his first college start, because Purdue has liked what it's seen from Matt Haarms coming off the bench and may want to keep him in that comfort zone.

And obviously Williams is playing well, coming off a 13-point, 12-rebound showing at Michigan State.

• They've only played four games, but Wisconsin is allowing only 60.3 points in Big Ten play. It's only played Rutgers, Iowa, Minnesota and Penn State, though.

The Badgers represented themselves fairly well in non-conference play, with wins over Xavier, Stanford, Oklahoma and N.C. State, their losses coming at Virginia, one of the best teams in the country; at Marquette, which is now ranked; and at Western Kentucky.

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NUMBERS AND SUCH
TeamAPCoachesNETKenPomKenPom - Win%

Purdue

ARV

24

17

33%

Wisconsin

ARV

ARV

15

11

67%

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PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (9-6, 2-2 B1G)

Roster | Schedule | Statistics

Projected Rotation

50 C Trevion Williams (6-9, 280, Fr.)

With Boudreaux sidelined, and Haarms playing well in reserve, the door is open for Williams to make his first-ever start, and obviously he's played at a level where he's earned such an opportunity, even though the defensive matchup against Ethan Happ is a far from ideal one. Williams is going to have his hands full with Happ's quickness.

24 F Grady Eifert (6-6, 220, Sr.)

Here's guessing that Eifert's role defensively involves heavily double-teaming Happ. That was Purdue's M.O. at Michigan State, to double on Nick Ward from the 4, before the Spartans got wise and started going into their post moves too quick for the help to matter. Doubling Happ is easier said than done in that sense.

14 G/F Ryan Cline (6-6, 195, Sr.)

Cline sprained his ankle in the second half at Michigan State, but says he's fine. Purdue needs him full-go, obviously. He made four threes at Michigan State, but had two go about halfway down, so he was that close to having a solid scoring night, for whatever that's worth.

20 G Nojel Eastern (6-6, 220, So.)

Eastern's perimeter defense will be critical on D'Mitrick Trice, Wisconsin's second-leading scorer and one of the biggest differences between last year's Badger team and this year's. Whatever scoring Eastern can chip in around the basket would be a welcomed sight, and his presence as a post-up option generated cutting opportunities for teammates and open threes at Michigan State. Look for Purdue to keep using that.

3 G Carsen Edwards (6-1, 200, Jr.)

No one needs to move on from Michigan State more than Edwards, who was 3-of-16 with four turnovers, missed difficult shots and repeatedly dribbled into Michigan State's extra layers of defense against him off the dribble. Purdue needs composure and sound decision-making on the road — anywhere, really – and it has to start with its most influential and highest-usage player. Right now, Edwards is shooting 32 percent in Big Ten play. When he's been at his best, he's been getting to the basket, too. Michigan State took that away. Others will try to, as well.

KEY PLAYERS

32 C - Matt Haarms (7-3, 250, So.)

Haarms has been playing well, when he's been playing. Foul trouble derailed him at Michigan State, but even though the Spartans' physicality was a challenge for him same as it was everyone, he did a number of positive things in his limited minutes. Purdue can't afford foul trouble in this one, and Ethan Happ is not easy to guard without fouling. Something to watch.

1 F Aaron Wheeler (6-9, 200, R-Fr.)

Wheeler was 0-for-4 from the floor against Michigan State, taking some quick shots Purdue probably would have preferred he been more patient on. It's halfway through the season now, but Purdue has still shown some signs of youth.

2 G Eric Hunter (6-3, 170, Fr.)

The freshman really seemed to compete defensively in his opportunities against Cassius Winston, and that was a great sign for Purdue, and for him. Trice isn't Cassius Winston, but he's an important matchup nonetheless.

55 G Sasha Stefanovic (6-4, 195, R-Fr.)

The redshirt freshman had made five threes and seemed to be trending well since the holiday break, but he was scoreless in a non-descript 11 minutes at Michigan State.

WISCONSIN BADGERS (11-4, 3-1 B1G)

Roster | Schedule | Stats

C - 22 Ethan Happ (6-10, 237, Sr.)

The Big Ten Player-of-the-Year candidate is probably the most unique player in the league, a terrific low-post scorer with incredible quickness and footwork who's run circles at times around Purdue big men, but also a center body type who can be Wisconsin's lead ball-handler at times. Happ's averaging 19.3 points and 10.3 rebounds. He's struggling at the foul line, as has been his career-long vulnerability, but he's a 56-percent shooter from the floor.

F - 35 Nate Reuvers (6-11, 240, So.)

If Purdue double-teams Happ, it's probably going to do so from the 4. That's been its M.O. this season. Problem is that Wisconsin's 4 man is Reuvers, a 6-11 spot-up three-point shooter who's making 35-plus percent of his threes and has scored in double-figures in three of Wisconsin's four Big Ten games.

G - 0 D'Mitrik Trice (6-0, 187, So.)

Wisconsin missed Trice badly last season but is benefiting from his return now just as significantly. He's the Badgers' second-leading scorer, averaging 14.3 points, and one of the Big Ten's top three-point shooters at nearly 47 percent.

G - 21 Khalil Iverson (6-5, 217, So.)

The veteran isn't a huge scoring threat, but can be if he's allowed to get to the offensive glass or around the rim in general. He's a great athlete and explosive leaper and can affect a game defensively.

G - 34 Brad Davison (6-3, 206, So.)

The gritty sophomore guard might be the most Wisconsin player ever, a tough, heady and skilled player who'll make threes, defend and compete. He really hurt Purdue in Madison last season in the loss that effectively cost the Boilermakers a Big Ten title.

KEY PLAYERS

G - 23 Kobe King (6-4, 203, So.)

After losing last season to injury, the promising young scorer is giving Wisconsin another shooting threat off the bench.

G - 1 Brevin Pritzl (6-3, 198, Sr.)

The senior is known for his shooting, a 36-percent three-point shooter off the bench.

F - 2 Aleem Ford (6-8, 220, Jr.)

Ford played a lot last season as Wisconsin lost a bunch of players to injury, but has settled into a reserve role as an upperclassman this season.

THREE THINGS
COMPOSURELIMITING HAPPCLOSEOUTS

Obviously, Purdue has had issues on the road this season, and the worst of them were laid bare at Michigan State, where the Boilermakers really did none of what they needed to do to win that game and quite honestly took themselves out of the game with shoddy decision-making and impatience.

Wisconsin star Ethan Happ is too hard to guard for him to not get his share of points, but Purdue just has to keep it within reason and not foul him so much that its bigs get in foul trouble and other Badgers are going to the line later for no good reason. Easier said than done.

Purdue has been an inconsistent team, at best, keeping with shooters, and closing out on threes. Given the attention Happ will command and his ability to pass out of it — or facilitate off the dribble even — Purdue must account for both ends of the inside-out game, and cover its bases off offensive rebounds.

PREDICTION: WISCONSIN 75, PURDUE 68

The guess here is that Purdue is going to struggle with Ethan Happ, then making it even more vulnerable to the three. And if the Boilermakers play as they did at Michigan State on offense, they're going to really struggle to score.

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