Northwestern at Purdue
Time: Saturday, 5 P.M. E.T.
Location: Ross-Ade Stadium
Surface: Natural Grass
2020 Schedule/records: Northwestern (3-0 overall, 3-0 Big Ten); Purdue (2-0; 2-0)
Series notes: Purdue leads the all-time series 51-32-1, after snapping a five game losing streak to the Wildcats with a 24-22 win in Evanston last year. Wildcats' coach Pat Fitzgerald has won seven of nine against the Boilermakers, and is 7-4 overall since taking over the reins at Northwestern in 2006. This is just the second time since 2000 Purdue has faced a ranked (AP) Northwestern team.
TV: BTN (Cory Provus, play-by-play; Anthony Herron, analyst; Olivia Dekker, sidelines)
line: Northwestern -3; opened Purdue -2
Radio (Purdue): Sirius 138/XM 195/ Tunein.com (Tim Newton, play-by-play; Pete Quinn, analyst; Rob Blackman, studio host, Kelly Kitchel sidelines)
Pregame: Gold and Black Radio
Purdue roster | Purdue Schedule/Results | Purdue Game Notes (PDF) | Game Morning Depth Chart
Northwestern Roster | Northwestern schedule/results | Northwestern Game Notes (PDF)
More: First Look: No. 23 Northwestern |Gold and Black Radio podcast: Purdue readies for primetime showdown | Northwestern focus |Big Ten power poll: Buckeyes vs. Jets. Who ya got? |Visit from 3-0 Northwestern is "a great opportunity for us" | Opponent View: Northwestern | O'Connell overcame "days of doubt" to ascend from walk-on to No. 1 QB | Instead of making tackles as LB at IU, RB Horvath breaking them at Purdue |Sullivan's a quick-study whose time may be now with big game looming | Deep Dive |BO: Looking ahead for Purdue basketball, football targets and more | Milton Wright catching on as Purdue's No. 2 pass-catching option | Gold and Black Radio Pregame at 11 a.m.: Northwestern at Purdue |Gold and Black LIVE Nov. 13 with guests Dr. Tim Ratliff and Evan Boudreaux GoldandBlack.com predictions: Northwestern-Purdue | History Lesson: Purdue-Northwestern 1931
Northwestern rushing versus Purdue against the run
Pat Fitzgerald's offenses like to keep the ball on the ground, and this year's group is no different. Junior Isaiah Bowser entered the season as the Wildcats' lead back but missed their win over Nebraska with a pectoral injury. He Is listed as the starter on Northwestern's depth chart, though sophomore Drake Anderson filled in nicely with with 94 yards against the 'Huskers. Northwestern averages just over 50 carries per game for 205 yards, with quarterback Peyton Ramsey adding to the rushing attack with both designed runs and scrambles.
Through two games, Purdue's new-look defense has surrendered 186 rushing yards per game. A pair of 30+ yard carries by Illinois didn't help the optics of new coordinator Bob Diaco's defense, but the Boilers had little time to prepare for the third and fourth-string Illini quarterbacks. With two weeks to prepare for the 'Cats, Purdue should be better equipped to stop Ramsey and the multi-dimensional run game. Questions about the availability of Bowser lead me to call this one a push.
Northwestern passing game versus Purdue against the pass
The Wildcats' passing attack struggled mightily In 2019, so they went and got graduate transfer Peyton Ramsey from Indiana. Ramsey started the Bucket matchups in 2018 and 2019 for IU, tossing for over 300 yards on both occasions. His experience and mobility have greatly helped this offense, though he has only eclipsed 200 passing yards in one game thus far.
A top receiver hasn't yet emerged for Northwestern, but they utilize many receivers. Ramsey has not attempted more than 30 passes in a game yet this season.
Purdue's pass coverage showed some gaps against Illinois, particularly late in the game. Ramsey's success against Purdue bodes well for the 'Cats, but I am still high on Purdue's secondary, especially with an extra week of preparation for a passing attack that has been far from dynamic this season.
Purdue run game versus Northwestern against the run
Running back Zander Horvath put together another productive game against the Illini, rushing for over 100 yards in spite of two fumbles (though one was very questionable). With little clarity on the availability of sophomore King Doerue, expect Horvath to be the bell cow yet again, as he is the only Purdue running back to carry the ball in 2020.
Northwestern's run defense struggled against Nebraska's run heavy attack, which featured a heavy diet of designed quarterback runs for Adrian Martinez and Luke McCaffrey. Though the 'Huskers ran for over 200 yards against Northwestern, their other two opponents were held well under 100. The linebackers are the strength of Northwestern's defense, led by two-time all-Big Ten selection Paddy Fisher.
I anticipate Northwestern's front seven coming out eager to show improvement from last week. Purdue has run the ball effectively so far, but this will be the best defense Purdue has faced. With two freshmen starting up front, will the Boilers be able to make enough holes for Horvath to run through?
Purdue passing game versus Northwestern against the pass
Junior quarterback Aidan O'Connell's first two outings have been rock solid, especially his 371-yard performance In Champaign. He has leaned heavily on star receiver David Bell, who is off to a stellar sophomore season. Milton Wright's emergence as a number two option is promising, while Amad Anderson and Payne Durham are also strong options for O'Connell.
After tossing two interceptions against Iowa, O'Connell was clean as can be against Illinois, with only six incomplete passes on the day. It was statically one of the best performances by a Boilermaker QB ever (82% completions, over 350 yards and no picks). Northwestern's defensive backfield has showcased big play ability, forcing eight interceptions on the young season. Redshirt freshman Brandon Joseph picked off two passes against Iowa before making a stellar interception against Nebraska.
The 'Cats safeties are the strength of their defensive backfield, but they haven't seen a receiver like David Bell yet. Look for Purdue to air it again on Saturday.
Special teams
Both teams bring solid kickers to the table, as Northwestern kicker Charlie Kuhbander comes in 3-4 on the field goal attempts with the lone miss being a wind-affected 42-yarder. Wildcat punter Derek Adams' leg has been superb In 2020, averaging 42.3 yards a punt and with half his punts downed inside the 20. Jeff Brohm indicated that we may see both Brooks Cormier and Zac Collins in this one after an inconsistent day the last time out.
Purdue's return game hasn't shown much so far, with only three kick returns and a long of 17 yards. Northwestern's Kyric McGowan broke off a 36 yard kick return vs. Nebraska, and senior Riley Lees is a reliable punt returner.
Intangibles
Northwestern returned more starters than anyone in the conference, and their 3-0 record reflects that. Fitzgerald does not receive enough credit nationally for his work to make Northwestern a consistent bowl team and occasional Big Ten West contender. With a veteran quarterback and a strong linebacking corps, it should be no surprise that the Wildcats are pushing for a trip to Indianapolis and the Big Ten title game on Dec. 19.
And Northwestern's defense is salty. In 2020, of the 33 possessions by opponents that have started in on the opponents' side of the field, the Wildcats D have given up just one touchdown. That's impressive.
Purdue is 2-0 for the first time since 2007, also the last time they beat Northwestern in Ross-Ade Stadium. With an unexpected bye week, the offensive line should be more cohesive without Cam Craig and Sam Garvin. Will Rondale Moore make his season debut on Saturday? That may be the difference maker in a critical game that will be played on a cool November evening..
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